So instead, I'm looking forward to the end of this season: October - "The Second Season".
I decided to take an early peak at the division I care about - the American League Central - and try and gauge the Tribe's playoff chances in 2009.
That American League Eastern Division is going to be awfully tough, but I figure the AL Wild Card winner is going to come out of there. So if the Indians want to play in October, in my non-expert opinion, they're going to have to win their division.
Here's how I see the division, as of March 3rd.
("Tribe Position Rank" is my ranking of the Indians' starter at each position compared to the starter at the same position on the other four teams in the American League Central Division.)
Catcher
Indians: Victor Martinez
Central Division: Miguel Olivo (Royals), Gerald Laird (Tigers), Joe Mauer (Twins) and A.J. Pierzynski (White Sox)
Analysis: Only Martinez and Mauer are in the discussion at catcher. If you go back to the start of the 2004 season, Martinez has played in 661 games - 100 more than Mauer's 561. Both have three seasons of hitting .300+ but Martinez brings bit more pop as he has crushed 86 homers in that span, compared to Mauer's 44.
Mauer is five years younger so if you're building for the long term, he's a no-brainer. For this season, I'll give him a slight edge over Martinez.
Tribe Position Rank: 2/5
First Base
Indians: Ryan Garko
Central Division: Mike Jacobs (Royals), Miguel Cabrera (Tigers), Justin Morneau (Twins) and Paul Konerko (White Sox)
Analysis: Cabrera and Morneau are leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the pack.
Garko, Jacobs and Konerko all have their strengths - and weaknesses. It's tough to pick as all three do different things.
Looking a step further, Konerko turns 33 later this week and should be past his prime. Garko and Jacobs both will open the season at 28-years old and should have their best days in front of them.
In terms of this season, I'll guess that either Jacobs or Konerko has a better season while the other one is worse than the Tribe's first baseman. My guess is that Jacobs will have a better year than Garko, while Konerko reaches the twilight of his noteworthy career.
Tribe Position Rank: 4/5
Second Base
Central Division: Alberto Callaspo (Royals), Placido Polanco (Tigers), Alexi Casilla (Twins) and Chris Getz (White Sox)
Analysis: Polanco is the only one of the five that hits for high average. He's a career .306 hitter and is coming off a year in which he hit .307. In the seven years he has played in at least 100 games, he has had a .295 average or better. The guy can hit. Polanco will hit for average and you can count on it.
We have less to go off of for the other four as they all made their debut in the second half of the 2006 season or later.
Getz only has seven games to his name and is still competing with Brent Lillibridge and Jayson Nix for the starting job. When you have three second baseman, you really have no second baseman. We'll put the White Sox with the worst options at second base in the division.
Casilla has more pop in his bat than both Cabrera and Callaspo, but both of those guys are shortstops by trade and should perform quite well defensively.
Cabrera hit just .184 before the All-Stat break, and .320 in his 60 games played in the second half. He is clearly capable of being a .280 hitter with some decent pop.
It's because of that pop - 6 HR and 47 RBI compared to 0 HR and 16 RBI in 74 games from Callaspo that I give the slight edge to Cabrera.
Tribe Position Rank: 3/5
Third Base
Indians: Mark DeRosa
Central Division: Alex Gordon (Royals), Brandon Inge (Tigers), Joe Crede (Twins) and Josh Fields (White Sox)
Analysis: While DeRosa, Gordon, Crede and Fields all stand at least 6'1, DeRosa weighs just 205 pounds - at least 15 pounds lighter than each of the other three. Yet it was DeRosa who put up the biggest power numbers last season, clubbing 21 homers and driving in 87. Gordon hit 16 round-trippers and Crede one-upped him, but neither of those guys drove in 60 runs or hit above .260. DeRosa, while playing second base with the Chicago Cubs, managed to hit .285.
You can argue that DeRosa played on a better team, but Crede's team went to the playoffs as well.
His offensive numbers were far superior last season. This year he will have to adjust to a new team, a new league and a new position. Still, I think DeRosa is vastly underrated and will do great things at Progressive Field.
Tribe Position Rank: 1/5
Shortstop
Indians: Jhonny Peralta
Central Division: Mike Aviles (Royals), Adam Everett (Tigers), Brendan Harris (Twins) and Alexi Ramirez (White Sox)
Analysis: Ramirez and Aviles were brilliant last year in their rookie seasons, finishing second and fourth, respectively, in the American League Rookie of the Year voting. Both also have the ability to play multiple positions, and play them well. That's a back knock on Peralta.
Peralta has committed 68 errors at shortstop over the past four seasons. He's never shwon great range in the hole, and his defense has cost the team at times.
Still, he has great power and has clubbed 20 or more homers in three of the last four years. Just seeing Aviles and Ramirez play when they battled the Tribe, I really liked them. I think those two are the best shortstops in the AL Central, followed by Peralta.
Tribe Position Rank: 3/5
Left Field
Indians: Ben Francisco
Central Division: David DeJesus (Royals), Carlos Guillen (Tigers), Denard Span (Twins) and Carlos Quentin (White Sox)
Analysis: With Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley and Trevor Crowe on the fast track to the major leagues, the pressure is certainly on Francisco to perform in 2009. He's a guy who does a lot of things alright, but doesn't stand out in a particular category.
Quentin was a viable MVP candidate before he had his season cut short last year due to injury, and DeJesus and Guillen are guys who can hit for average while showing some signs of power. Span was solid last year in his rookie campaign, hitting .294 and hitting six homers while swiping 18 bags.
Tribe Position Rank: 5/5
Center Field
Indians: Grady Sizemore
Central Division: Coco Crisp (Royals), Curtis Granderson (Tigers), Carlos Gomez (Twins) and Brian Anderson (White Sox)
Analysis: Sizemore is the best - no question about it. Crisp and Granderson may have hit for better average than Sizemore in 2008, but no center fielder in the division hit more homers or drove in more runs than the Indians' Sizemore. In fact, Josh Hamilton may be the only other center fielder in baseball that can claim he had better numbers than Sizemore.
Still, Sizemore plays a gold glove center field and is simply a game-changer.
Tribe Position Rank: 1/5
Right Field
Indians: Shin-Soo Choo
Central Division: Jose Guillen (Royals), Magglio Ordonez (Tigers), Michael Cuddyer (Twins) and Jermaine Dye (White Sox)
Analysis: Only Ordonez hit for a higher average than Choo in 2008. Ordonez, joined by Guillen and Dye, also had higher HR and RBI totals. Choo is certainly a solid major leaguer, but the right fielders in the AL Central are a good group. I think he's very comparable to Minnesota's Michael Cuddyer, but I'll side with Choo because ... honestly, he's an Indian.
Tribe Position Rank: 4/5
Designated Hitter
Indians: Travis Hafner
Central Division: Billy Butler (Royals), Gary Sheffield (Tigers), Jason Kubel (Twins) and Jim Thome (White Sox)
Analysis: Is Hafner as bad as he suggested the last two years? In the 209 games he played in during the last two seasons, he hit .247 with 29 dingers and 124 RBIs.
Is he as good as his three-season span from 2004-06 when he hit at least .305 with no less than 108 RBIs in each season?
Truthfully, the answer probably lies somewhere in between.
This year, the Indians would probably be thrilled with a .270, 25 HR, 90 RBI season from the man affectionately called "Pronk".
Butler is yet to show the great power numbers that had him labeled as a top prospect. At the other end of the spectrum, Sheffield and Thome are clearly on the downside of their careers. Is Hafner too?
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I have a feeling that Hafner can be somewhat productive in 2009. I could see him putting together a season Blogger: Tim Ertle - Edit Post "The American League - Central Division"similar to the one that Kubel had last season (.272, 20 HR, 78 RBI). I, for whatever reason, still believe in Pronk.
Tribe Position Rank: 2/5
Starting Pitching
Indians: Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona, Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes, Aaron Laffey
Central Division: Gil Meche, Zack Greinke, Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies (Royals), Justin Verlander, Armando Galarraga, Justin Bonderman, Edwin Jackson and Dontrelle Willis (Tigers), Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Kyle Slowey, Glen Perkins and Nick Blackburn (Twins) and Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Bartolo Colon and Clayton Richard (White Sox)
Analysis: The Tribe's starting pitching worries me. At this juncture in spring training, you like to at least have an inkling as to who is going to fill out your starting rotation. Last year the Tribe was lucky and Cliff Lee rose to the challenge - and then some. This year, there doesn't seem to be a guy with that type of upside.
Jake Westbrook is scheduled to be back in July, so the Indians simply need to stay afloat until that point. Carl Pavano was good when I was like four, and Reyes, Laffey and Jeremy Sowers are yet to really wow anyone for an entire season.
Fortunately for the Wahoos, no team in their division blows you away with the five guys they're slated to throw out there.
A lot is yet to be determined, like whether or not Dontrelle Willis can find his control in Detroit or if Bartolo Colon can be even a flash of what he once was.
I like Minnesota's rotation. Baker is solid, and all of baseball was captivated by Liriano a few years ago. Perkins was a nice surprise last year, and Slowey and Blackburn are young arms who proved they have what it takes at the highest level. I think they have the best starting pitching in the division.
I think Chicago is next, and for now I'll pencil the Tribe in at third. If Verlander can right the ship after a horrid 2008 season and Bonderman rebounds from injuries, they have a chance to not only surpass the Tribe and White Sox, but also the Twins staff.
Tribe Position Rank: 3/5
Closer
Indians: Kerry Wood
Central Division: Joakim Soria (Royals), Brandon Lyon (Tigers), Joe Nathan (Twins) and Bobby Jenks (White Sox)
Analysis: Three of the five were All-Star selections in 2008 - Lyon and Jenks being the exceptions. Nathan has a reputation as being one of the preeminent closers in the game, but it was Soria who recorded more saves in 2008.
Both Soria and Nathan had 45 save opportunities - yet Soria converted 42 compared to just 39 for Nathan. The Twins' righthander, however, slightly edged out Soria in ERA and strikeouts.
While Soria may have had more saves in 2008, if a game is on the line, I want Nathan on the mound. I give the edge to Nathan.
Soria has lights out stuff and Jenks has been dominant at times (i.e. retiring 41 consecutive batters in 2008) so I rank Kerry Wood ahead of only Brandon Lyon.
Tribe Position Rank: 4/5
1 comment:
So the sox are going to win? and look for beckham to win the 2nd place job and some hardware for roy
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