This column was first published on LandLoyalty.com on February 20, 2011.
With pitchers and catchers reporting to Goodyear, Arizona this past week, it’s easy to get excited about baseball season getting underway. (If you’re not excited, spend two minutes watching this.) It’s my favorite sport, and I was getting revved up by seeing video of pitchers taking fielding practice on the news. And then I remembered that we’re not close to winning this year, and that excitement level dropped a little bit.
So in an effort to cheer myself up, I hopped on the Baseball America website to look at the Indians team report. One quick glance over the page had me feeling pretty good about the future. I hope it has the same therapeutic effect on you after viewing the page here.
They give a projected lineup for 2014, and realistically that’s the date I have circled for when the Indians could be legitimate contenders. I know it’s far off but we’re going on 47 years without a title in this town. What’s a few more?
Not to say that 2011 over before it started, but here were some of my thoughts regarding the 2014 projections (with a positive spin) and why I like our chances down the road.
Catcher – Carlos Santana
Santana was voted as the 99th best player in all of baseball during the MLB Network’s ‘Top 100 Right Now’ series they debuted last week. He’s turn 25 a week into the 2011 season, which means he’ll be entering his prime in 2014. Scary thought for opponents.
He hit .314 against righties and just .146 against lefties. That will need to get straightened out, but he hit six homers in his first 46 games with the Tribe. Project that out over 150 games and you’re right around 20 homers … and that’s from a catcher. He’ll have to stay healthy, but Tribe fans have reason to be encouraged about him.
First Base – Matt LaPorta
And not as much reason to be excited about LaPorta. In 110 games last year, he hit .221 with 12 homers and 41 RBIs. Seven of those homers came in his last 45 games of the season so he picked up the pace, but it’s not overly encouraging that he hit .185 over that period. Just 28 hits in 45 games? Hmmm.
This has been a tough position for the Indians to fill. They missed on Michael Aubrey and no one seems to be incredibly high on Beau Mills. They took Ole Miss first baseman Stephen Head with their second round pick in 2005, and he wasn’t the answer either.
Luckily from a defensive standout, you can teach someone to play first base. Baseball America has Nick Weglarz projected as the designated hitter. Maybe he can play first, or the Tribe can transition Santana to first base and find solid defensive catcher, maybe Lou Marson who will turn 25 in June.
Second Base – Jason Kipnis
In his 162 minor league games, Kipnis has a .300 batting average with 17 homers and 93 RBI. He’s converting from the outfield at Arizona State to second base with the Tribe and did make 23 errors In 2010. Still, everyone seems to be high on him.
ESPN’s Keith Law rated Kipnis as the 56th best prospect in baseball, so he definitely projects to be a long-term fit at second base for the Tribe.
Third Base – Lonnie Chisenhall
Law held Chisenhall in higher regard than Kipnis, rating him as his 39th best prospect. MLB.com rated him as the 36th best prospect, while Baseball America tabs him as the Tribe’s top prospect. The bottom line is people expect him to be good.
He’ll play this whole season as a 22-year-old, and last year hit .278 with 17 homers and 84 RBI in AA Akron.
The Indians selected him with the 29th overall pick in the 2008 draft, and hitting on early draft picks like Chisenhall (and Kipnis – second round in 2009) is huge.
Shortstop – Asdrubal Cabrera
Just keep on keeping on. Cabrera has been steady, although his averaged dipped some in 2010. He plays terrific defense, and could definitely be an important “role player” on a championship team.
Left Field – LeVon Washington
I was surprised that Michael Brantley wasn’t on this list. I know he finished the year with a .246 average, but he got off to such a horrible start (.118 in his first 17 games) that he was fighting an up-hill battle all season. He hit .284 and stole 10 bases in 11 tries after the All-Star break. And he’s still only 23-years-old.
Nevertheless, Washington might be better and you only get three spots. He was the Tribe’s second round pick in 2010 after being taken in the first round – and not signing – with the Rays. There were talks before of Washington playing second base, but the Tribe seems to have their man in Kipnis.
Center Field – Grady Sizemore
Here’s hoping. Brantley could potentially slide over here and play center field in Cleveland. Sizemore is still just 28-year-old, and if you apply the “28-32” theory should just be entering the prime of his career. Even if he is just a shell of himself after missing 185 games in the last two seasons, he’s still a pretty good player. Would you trade him? What’s his value? Tough call.
Right Field – Shin-Soo Coo
Like Sizemore, he’s 28-years-old. Same thing: should be entering his prime. It’d be scary if he can get better after three straight .300+ seasons. In those three seasons he’s hit 14, 20 and 22 homers, respectively. After stealing just four bases in 2008, he’s swiped 21 and 22 the last two seasons. He does it all, and with the military obligation out of the way, the only obstacle that remains is Choo’s agent: Scott Boras.
Starting Pitching – Alex White, Drew Pomeranz, Carlos Carrasco, Fausto Carmona, Jason Knapp
White (2009) and Pomeranz (2010) were the Indians first round draft picks in each of the last two seasons. They were college pitchers (White – North Carolina and Pomeranz – Ole Miss) so they should be further along in their development. In 26 games in the minor leagues, White has posted a 10-10 record, but an ERA of 2.45 and a 1.12 WHIP.
Carrasco and Knapp were two pieces acquired from Philadelphia in the Cliff Lee trade, so fans should feel a little better if they get two starting pitchers in return for the former Cy Young Award winner. Patience is a virtue.
Carmona? Who know what you’re going to get. But as a fourth starter? You’d have to think he’s better than most fourth starters in the league.
Relief Pitching/Closer: Chris Perez
Perez will turn 26 this season, and is coming off a good season on a bad team. He converted on 23 of his 27 save opportunities. He struck out 61 in 63 innings, something you like to see in a closer. Plus he seems a little whacky – and you have to like that in a closer.
Getting to him might be easier with some pieces in front of him starting to fall into place.
Rafael Perez figured it out after the 2010 All-Star break and was 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA. He was lights out in 2007 and decent in 2008. After imploding in 2009, he came back with a pretty solid 2010. He’s a nice lefty option out of the bullpen.
Tony Sipp posted a 2.81 ERA in his 32 appearances after the All-Star Break, he just has to put it all together. Throw in guys like Justin Masterson who could be sent to the bullpen
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Of course, these are all just projections. Some of these players could leave, and there’s always a chance, however small it may be, that the Indians will pony up and be able to land a free agent. Still, it appears as though the cupboards are hardly empty.
I feel better now. This upcoming season might be long, but there’s help on the way.
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